Institute of Advanced Studies

2009 Ian Constable Lecture - The 21st century pandemic

Professor Anne Kelso, Director of the World Health Organisation (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza

In 2009 we have witnessed the beginning of the first influenza pandemic in 40 years.

This event reminds us that, despite the advances of the 20th century, we are still vulnerable to the medical, social and economic effects of infectious disease.  Although we have co-existed with influenza viruses throughout recorded history and have developed vaccines and antiviral drugs to control them, their remarkable capacity for change means that the future evolution of influenza viruses – and even the progress of the present pandemic – cannot be predicted.

Much has been learned about the characteristics of influenza viruses that underlie this capacity for change and the emergence of new variants from animal reservoirs. The three pandemics of the 20th century, in 1918–1919, 1957 and 1968, have also shown us how new influenza viruses emerge and spread through non-immune human communities. But pandemics are also shaped by the world in which they occur and the 2009 pandemic is taking place in a world changing rapidly as a result of technology, globalisation and demographic and economic change. These factors will all affect its outcome.

In 2009, we have a unique opportunity to use modern surveillance, communication and analytical tools to study this pandemic as it evolves, particularly in the southern hemisphere as the new virus competes with seasonal influenza viruses during our winter. Lessons from this experience will guide public health responses in subsequent seasons and improve our ability to respond to the inevitable pandemics of the future.